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National Information Center: GDP is expected to increase by about 11.5% in the first quarter

National Information Center: GDP is expected to increase by about 11.5% in the first quarter

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Guide: the national information Center exclusively released a report in the China Securities Journal on the 5th that China's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to increase by 11.5% year-on-year in the first quarter. At the same time, the overall price level has entered the rising channel, and the consumer price level (CPI) may rise by about 2.5% in the first quarter. The report said that due to the economic stimulus

the National Information Center released an exclusive report in China Securities News on the 5th that China's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 11.5% year-on-year in the first quarter. At the same time, the overall price level has entered the rising channel, and the consumer price level (CPI) may rise by about 2.5% in the first quarter

according to the report, due to the continued effect of economic stimulus policies and the replenishment of industrial inventories, China's economic growth will continue to rebound in the first quarter, reaching about 11.5%. At the same time, it is worth noting that residents' inflation expectations have rebounded significantly. It is expected that CPI and PPI may rise by 2.5% and 5.5% respectively in the first quarter. The central bank and other departments can make more use of various quantitative policy tools to prevent excessive expansion of credit demand and change the situation of excessively loose liquidity

the report suggests that we should implement and improve the policies and measures that have been introduced to promote consumption; Reasonably regulate house prices, strictly curb speculative demand, increase the supply of affordable housing, and promote the healthy development of the real estate industry; We should promote and improve the reform of the fiscal and tax system and fundamentally solve the problem of "land finance"

full text of the report

stimulus policies continue to be effective. Inventory replenishment drives growth

-- prediction and analysis of China's economic situation in the first quarter

the research group on macro policy trends of the national information Center

the economic operation in 2009 was better than expected

in 2009, China's policy implementation in response to the international financial crisis, macroeconomic recovery and asset price rise exceeded expectations. Government investment has driven the rapid growth of fixed asset investment. Policies have activated medium-term consumption hotspots such as housing and automobiles. Although foreign trade imports and exports have declined significantly, they have retained market share. In addition, consumer prices turned from negative to positive before the end of the year, and inflation expectations increased significantly

the economic growth picked up quarter by quarter, and the economic operation was better than expected

in 2009, China achieved a total GDP of 33535.3 billion yuan, which was about $4.9 trillion based on the annual average exchange rate of 6.8311, an actual increase of 8.7% over the previous year, exceeding the task of "ensuring 8". On a quarterly basis, GDP in the first, second, third and fourth quarters increased by 6.2%, 7.9%, 9.1% and 10.7% respectively, showing a quarterly rebound. By industry, the added value of the primary industry was 3547.7 billion yuan, an increase of 4.2%; The added value of the secondary industry was 156958 billion yuan, an increase of 9.5%; The added value of the tertiary industry was 14291.8 billion yuan, an increase of 8.9%. 1、 The structure of secondary and tertiary industries is 10.6:46.8:42.6

in response to the international financial crisis, the stimulus package has been continuously increased in the implementation process, and the local investment enthusiasm has made the actual new investment scale greatly exceed 4trillion yuan, so it is necessary to add appropriate fixtures; There are also some super hard material plans, which have also driven the expected plan of new loans to greatly exceed 5trillion. The policy stimulus was stronger than expected, quickly reversing the economic downturn and driving the annual economic growth to exceed expectations. At the same time, asset prices such as real estate and stock market rose more than expected, bringing about a significant increase in inflation expectations

industrial production rebounded rapidly, and enterprise efficiency gradually improved.

industrial production, especially heavy industry, rebounded rapidly. In 2009, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 11.0% year-on-year, 1.9 percentage points lower than that of the previous year. Among them, light and light industries increased by 9.7% and 11.5% respectively. Industrial production showed a trend of rapid recovery month by month, especially the accelerated recovery of heavy industry and the widening growth gap between light and heavy industries. The growth rate of heavy industry rose sharply from 2.7% in the previous two months to 21.4% in December, while the growth rate of light industry rose from 6.5% in the previous two months to 12.1% in December. Among them, in November, the growth rate of heavy industry production was 9.6 percentage points faster than that of light industry production, the highest level since 1998, indicating that the economic growth rate will be further improved

the efficiency of industrial enterprises gradually improved, and the profit growth rate in November was significantly positive. In 2009, industrial enterprises above Designated Size nationwide achieved a profit of 2589.1 billion yuan, an increase of 7.8% year-on-year. The growth rate was 2.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year, 30.7 and 18.4 percentage points higher than the growth rate in the first five and eight months respectively. After a continuous decline of 10 months, the year-on-year growth rate achieved a substantial positive growth in November

domestic demand is growing at a high speed, while foreign demand has weakened significantly.

policies drive the rapid growth of investment. Driven by a package of economic stimulus policies, fixed asset investment grew rapidly. In 2009, the nominal growth of urban fixed asset investment was 30.5%. After deducting price factors, the actual growth rate was 33.7%, 17.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year, which was the highest real growth rate since the compilation of fixed asset investment price index statistics in 1990. Investment in the field of people's livelihood increased significantly. The annual infrastructure (excluding electricity) investment was 4191.3 billion yuan, an increase of 44.3%, residential services and other services increased by 61.8%, education increased by 37.2%, and health, social security and social welfare increased by 58.5%. In 2009, the contribution rate of capital formation to GDP was 92.3%, significantly higher than the annual average contribution rate of about 36.7%, and the pull on GDP was 8.0 percentage points, forming an abnormal stress operation stimulated by the crisis response policy of "growth depends on investment and investment depends on the government"

policies activate medium-term consumption hotspots such as housing and cars. In 2009, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 15.5% in nominal terms and 16.9% in real terms, the highest level since 1985. Stimulated by the expansion of consumption policies, consumption hotspots such as housing and cars have risen sharply, with blowout growth exceeding expectations. In 2009, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide was 937.13 million square meters, an increase of 42.1% over the previous year, of which the sales area of commercial housing increased by 43.9%; The sales volume of commercial housing was 43995 billion yuan, an increase of 75.5% over the previous year, of which the sales volume of commercial housing increased by 80.0%. In 2009, the national automobile sales reached 13.6448 million, becoming the world's largest consumer of new cars, with a year-on-year increase of 46%, including 10.3313 million passenger cars, with a year-on-year increase of 53%. The contribution of final consumption to GDP in 2009 was 4.6 percentage points, accounting for 52.5%, slightly higher than 45% in 2008 The gross profit rate of composite polyurethane adhesives used in emerging fields will maintain a relatively high level of 7%, which is also higher than the average contribution rate of about 45% since 1978

the growth rate of foreign trade import and export fell sharply, and the year-end growth rate changed from negative to positive. After the outbreak of the international financial crisis, China's import and export situation took a sharp turn for the worse. In 2009, exports fell by 16% year-on-year, imports fell by 11.2% year-on-year, and the trade surplus was US $196.06 billion, down 34.2% year-on-year. The situation was the most severe in the first quarter of 2009. After May, the decline of import and export began to slow down. In December, foreign demand further warmed up, and the export growth rate changed from negative to positive, with a year-on-year increase of 17.7%; China's domestic demand grew strongly, with imports increasing by 26.7% in November, achieving positive growth for the first time in the year, with a growth rate of 55.9% in December. In 2009, the contribution rate of net exports to GDP was -44.8%, significantly lower than the average contribution rate of about 8% in, and the pull on GDP was -3.9 percentage points

before the end of the year, prices turned from negative to positive, and house prices rose rapidly.

in 2009, the year-on-year growth rate of consumer goods prices (CPI) in China turned to increase for the first time in November after falling for nine consecutive months. In December, driven by the soaring prices of vegetables and other food caused by the coldest weather in northern China in decades, prices rose by 1.9%, mainly because food rose by 5.3%, driving CPI up by 1.74 percentage points, and housing expenditure prices rose by 1.5%, The CPI rose by 0.21 percentage points, and the total of these two items was 1.95%. CPI fell by 0.7% in the whole year. In 2009, the year-on-year growth rate of China's producer price of industrial products (PPI) fell for 11 consecutive months. In December, it increased by 1.7% for the first time, and the annual PPI decreased by 5.4%. However, PPI has been growing for 9 consecutive months since April

real estate prices soared. Since March 2009, housing sales prices have been increasing for 10 consecutive months, and year-on-year house prices have accelerated since becoming positive in June. In December, housing sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities across the country rose 7.8% year-on-year, an increase of 2.1 percentage points over November. The average selling price of commercial housing nationwide in 2009 was 20.8% higher than that in 2007 during the last round of real estate price boom. At present, housing prices in first tier cities have exceeded the peak in the second half of 2007, and housing prices in some second - and third tier cities are also close to or above the peak in 2007

China's GDP is expected to grow by 11.5% in the first quarter

China's economy will continue to rebound in the first quarter. It is preliminarily estimated that China's GDP will grow by about 11.5% in the first quarter

industrial production continued to grow rapidly

in the first quarter, the positive factors driving industrial production mainly include: (1) since the third quarter of last year, China's economy has entered the short cycle re stocking stage of the kichin cycle. In particular, strong inflation expectations have greatly increased the demand for inventory replenishment of energy and raw materials, driving the rapid growth of industrial production. (2) In 2009, the booming housing and automobile markets drove the rapid development of steel, building materials, chemical industry, household appliances and other industries. (3) The stabilization and recovery of the economies of major trading partners have restored foreign demand, and the export delivery value of industrial products is expected to increase steadily. (4) The low base factor of the sharp decline of industry under the impact of the international financial crisis in the same period last year made industrial production show the characteristics of restorative growth in the first quarter. (5) In January 2010, the National Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index (PMI) was 55.8%. Although the profit of China's paper enterprises fell by 0.8 percentage points in 2018, lower than that of the previous month, the index has been at the critical point - more than 50% for 11 consecutive months, indicating that the manufacturing economy as a whole continues to maintain a good momentum of recovery. Among them, the production index and new order index were 60.5% and 59.9% respectively, both above the critical point for 12 consecutive months, indicating that the number of new orders in the manufacturing industry increased significantly, and manufacturing production continued to maintain a stable and rapid growth

of course, leap February 2009 is one more day than this year's working day. In addition, the rare cold weather in decades has led to a shortage of heating gas in some northern regions, and heavy snow has affected the transportation of electric coal, which has led to a shortage of electricity in some regions. Therefore, extreme weather will have a certain impact on some industrial production

in general, with the gradual replenishment of industrial inventory, industrial production, especially heavy industrial production, will continue the rapid growth momentum in the fourth quarter of last year, and it is expected that the added value of industries above Designated Size will increase by about 17.9% in the first quarter

the nominal growth rate of retail sales of social consumer goods accelerated

the main factors driving consumption growth in the first quarter are: (1) policies promote the stable growth of consumption. The central economic work conference clearly emphasized that consumption should play a driving role in economic growth; At the beginning of the year, the executive meeting of the State Council launched several policies and measures to promote consumption. Most of the consumption stimulus policies have been continued, and the scope and intensity of support have been continuously improved and increased. Different from the "investment" that was taken as the starting point to curb the economic downturn at the beginning of last year, consumption has become the focus of maintaining stable economic growth this year. (2) The rapid growth of residents' income is conducive to the improvement of consumption level. In 2009, the per capita disposable income of urban residents increased by 9.8% in real terms, much higher than the average annual growth rate of 7.2% in 30 years, and the per capita net income of rural residents increased by 8.5% in real terms, higher than the average annual growth rate of 7.1%. At present, the labor market has returned from migrant workers after the crisis